All 103 Málaga municipalities included in Spain’s new earthquake risk planning: what the BOE classification means

All 103 municipalities in Málaga province are included in Spain’s new Civil Protection planning framework for earthquake risk. The Basic Planning Directive published in the Official State Gazette, or BOE, places the whole province within areas where seismic intensity VII or higher must be considered.

This does not mean that a major earthquake is expected soon, nor does it represent a prediction that a strong tremor will occur in Málaga within a specific period.

The classification is based on probabilistic seismic hazard studies used to organise prevention and emergency response in a part of southern Spain that is naturally seismically active.

The practical consequence is important: municipalities included in the directive must be covered by local earthquake emergency planning, coordinated with regional Civil Protection plans.

All 103 Málaga municipalities appear on the new map

Order INT/1069/2026, published in the BOE on 10 October 2026, approves a new Basic Civil Protection Planning Directive for earthquake risk.

Its Annex III lists municipalities located in areas where, according to studies by Spain’s National Geographic Institute, certain levels of seismic intensity may be reached.

In Málaga province, all 103 municipalities are included among areas where intensities of VII or higher are considered possible for a 475-year return period.

The list includes Málaga city, Marbella, Estepona, Torremolinos, Fuengirola, Mijas, Ronda, Antequera, Vélez-Málaga and Nerja, as well as every smaller municipality in the province.

What does intensity VII mean?

One important point is the difference between magnitude and intensity.

Magnitude measures the energy released by an earthquake and is normally expressed as a single value for each event.

Intensity, by contrast, describes how strongly the earthquake is experienced in a particular place: how people feel it, how objects react and what effects it may have on buildings.

The same earthquake can therefore produce different intensity levels depending on distance from the epicentre, local ground conditions and the type of buildings present.

The BOE classification is based on this second measure.

34 municipalities are in the VIII-or-higher category

Within Málaga province, 34 municipalities are included in a higher hazard category.

Annex III-B of the BOE places them in areas where intensities of VIII or above may occur within the probabilistic scenario used for planning.

They are:

• Alcaucín
• Alfarnate
• Alfarnatejo
• Algarrobo
• Almáchar
• Antequera
• Árchez
• Archidona
• Arenas
• Benamargosa
• Canillas de Aceituno
• Canillas de Albaida
• Casabermeja
• Colmenar
• Comares
• Cómpeta
• Cútar
• El Borge
• Frigiliana
• Málaga
• Nerja
• Periana
• Riogordo
• Salares
• Sayalonga
• Sedella
• Torrox
• Vélez-Málaga
• Villanueva de Algaidas
• Villanueva de la Concepción
• Villanueva de Tapia
• Villanueva del Rosario
• Villanueva del Trabuco
• Viñuela

The geographical concentration is clear: many are located in the Axarquía and the eastern and north-eastern parts of the province.

Málaga city is also included in the higher-intensity group

One of the most notable points is that Málaga city itself appears in the VIII-or-higher category.

This does not mean the National Geographic Institute is warning that such an earthquake is about to occur.

It means that, within the long-term hazard models used for Civil Protection planning, that level must be considered as a possible scenario.

This places particular importance on issues such as critical infrastructure, communications, hospitals, evacuation routes and emergency coordination.

Does this mean a major earthquake will happen in Málaga?

No.

The new classification is not an earthquake forecast.

There is currently no scientific method capable of predicting in advance the exact date, location and magnitude of an earthquake.

The directive works with long-term statistical probabilities and planning scenarios.

Its purpose is not to say when a specific earthquake will happen, but to estimate what levels of ground shaking should be taken into account when preparing towns, cities and emergency services.

What does a 475-year return period mean?

The document uses a 475-year return period, a common reference in seismic hazard studies and construction standards.

The term can easily be misunderstood.

It does not mean that a major earthquake must happen once every 475 years.

It is a statistical tool used to express the probability that a certain level of ground shaking will be exceeded within a specific time period.

It should therefore not be interpreted as a countdown or a timetable for future earthquakes.

Why is Málaga seismically active?

The main explanation lies in the geological position of southern Spain.

Málaga is located in a region influenced by the convergence of the African and Eurasian tectonic plates.

This interaction creates different fault systems and helps explain much of the seismic activity recorded across eastern Andalusia and the Alboran Sea.

The proximity to Granada, one of Spain’s most seismically active areas, together with known active geological structures in the region, helps explain why Málaga features prominently on national seismic hazard maps.

Seismic hazard is not the same as seismic risk

Another key distinction is between hazard and risk.

Seismic hazard refers to the probability that a certain level of ground motion may occur in a particular area.

Risk also takes other factors into account.

These include:

• how many people live in the area;
• the type and age of buildings;
• the strength of construction;
• the presence of hospitals and other essential infrastructure;
• urban density;
• the capacity of emergency services to respond.

Two municipalities with similar seismic hazard can therefore have very different levels of risk.

All municipalities must be included in local planning

The new directive has direct consequences for local councils.

It states that regional plans must establish guidelines for preparing local action plans in municipalities where intensities of VII or higher may occur.

The regulation also specifies that local planning must, in all cases, include municipalities listed in Annex III.

Because all 103 municipalities in Málaga appear in that annex, the entire province falls within this planning framework.

What must local earthquake plans include?

Municipal plans will need to go far beyond simply recognising that earthquakes are possible.

They must include risk analysis and territorial zoning.

They should also address:

• public information systems;
• warning mechanisms;
• self-protection measures;
• evacuation by geographical areas;
• official mapping;
• coordination of emergency services;
• immediate assistance for affected people;
• identification of available resources and equipment.

The aim is for each municipality to know in advance how to organise its response if an earthquake causes significant disruption.

Simplified plans for smaller municipalities

Málaga province includes many small towns and villages.

The new directive recognises this and allows regional plans to provide simplified documents for municipalities with fewer than 5,000 inhabitants.

These would follow models approved by Spain’s National Civil Protection Council.

Provincial authorities may also provide technical assistance for risk analysis, mapping and shared response systems.

Hospitals and critical infrastructure are priorities

Earthquake emergencies do not affect homes alone.

Planning gives special attention to infrastructure that must continue operating after a disaster.

This includes hospitals, fire stations, communication systems, transport infrastructure and other strategic buildings.

The directive also incorporates the need to consider vulnerable groups and ensure that emergency plans reflect their particular needs.

Animals, the environment and cultural heritage are also included

The updated directive takes a broader view of earthquake consequences.

Plans must consider not only effects on people and buildings.

They also need to include possible impacts on animals, the environment and historical, artistic and cultural heritage.

This is particularly relevant in Málaga province, which contains historic centres, monuments, archaeological sites and numerous protected cultural assets.

The new rules replace planning dating back to 1995

The update was necessary because the previous Basic Civil Protection Planning Directive for seismic risk dated back to 1995.

Over the last three decades, scientific knowledge, geographic information systems and tools for modelling seismic hazard and risk have improved considerably.

The new framework aims to adapt emergency planning to that progress and establish common criteria for national, regional and local authorities.

Málaga has a history of significant earthquakes

Málaga’s relationship with earthquakes is not purely theoretical.

One of the major historical events occurred in 1680, when a strong earthquake affected Málaga city and numerous municipalities across the province.

The new national directive refers to this event alongside other major earthquakes in Spanish history that helped increase awareness of seismic risk.

It also mentions events in Granada, Almería, Torrevieja, Arenas del Rey and Lorca.

The 1884 Andalusian earthquake also affected Málaga

Another especially significant event was the 1884 Arenas del Rey earthquake, also known as the Andalusian earthquake.

Its effects were particularly severe in Granada, but Málaga was also affected.

The Serranía and Axarquía have also experienced numerous smaller tremors throughout history.

Most do not cause serious damage, but they are part of the normal activity of a geologically active region.

What should people do during an earthquake?

The new directive gives particular importance to self-protection.

Knowing some basic rules can reduce risk during an earthquake.

If shaking begins while you are inside a building, general advice is to stay away from windows and objects that could fall, protect yourself and avoid using lifts.

Running outside during the strongest shaking can be dangerous.

Once the movement stops, people should follow emergency service instructions and check for possible damage before returning to affected buildings.

Preparation does not mean alarm

The fact that the whole of Málaga appears on the new planning map may attract attention, but the purpose of the classification is mainly preventive.

There is no warning of an imminent earthquake.

What is changing is the way public authorities must prepare for a known natural hazard.

Málaga is located in a seismically active region, and the new rules are designed to turn that reality into better protocols, stronger coordination and clearer information for the public.

The distinction is important: the aim is not to predict the next earthquake, but to be better prepared if one eventually occurs.