Rain returns to Malaga, but the cold stays away: this week’s weather forecast

Rain is returning to Malaga after several days of mild temperatures and mostly clear skies. However, the change will not yet bring a period of intense cold to the Costa del Sol.

The Spanish State Meteorological Agency expects precipitation to spread across much of the province during the afternoon and evening of Wednesday, 4 November, with possible thunderstorms along parts of the western coast.

Temperatures will fall moderately, particularly during the middle of the day. Even so, conditions will remain relatively mild for the time of year, with daytime highs recovering quickly from Friday onwards.

Up to a 95% chance of rain in Malaga city

Malaga city will experience mostly cloudy or overcast skies throughout much of Wednesday.

The probability of precipitation will gradually increase:

• Around 60% during the morning.
• Up to 95% from early afternoon until the evening.
• Approximately 65% during the night.

Light rain may begin during the late morning and become more widespread during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible, although continuous rain throughout the entire day is not expected.

Temperatures will range between approximately 15C and 22C, with the perceived temperature occasionally feeling slightly cooler.

When is the heaviest rain expected?

The highest probability of rain in Malaga city is concentrated during Wednesday afternoon, particularly between 1pm and 7pm.

Overcast conditions are expected to continue during the evening, with some light rain still possible during the early hours of Thursday.

Showers are likely to be unevenly distributed. This means one neighbourhood or municipality could receive considerably more rain than another, even within the same area.

A high probability of precipitation does not necessarily indicate that a large amount of rain will fall. It means that rainfall is considered highly likely somewhere within the forecast zone.

Rain across the Costa del Sol

The western Costa del Sol will be among the areas experiencing the greatest instability.

Marbella

Marbella has a 65% to 90% probability of rain on Wednesday, with the highest figures expected during the afternoon.

Temperatures will range between 15C and 22C. Some light rain may continue during the early hours of Thursday, although conditions should gradually improve throughout the day.

Estepona

In Estepona, the probability of precipitation will reach 95% during the afternoon, with possible thunderstorms later in the day.

The maximum temperature will be approximately 21C, while the minimum will remain close to 14C.

Cloud and light rain could continue during the first half of Thursday, but the probability of precipitation will fall significantly during the afternoon.

Fuengirola, Benalmádena and Torremolinos

Overcast skies and showers are also expected along the coast between Fuengirola and Malaga city.

Because these municipalities are located close together, their general weather pattern will be similar. However, the intensity and exact timing of the rain may vary locally.

Rain probability reaches 100% in the Axarquía

In Vélez-Málaga and other parts of the Axarquía, the probability of rain will reach 100% during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will range from 15C to 22C, with overcast conditions throughout much of the day.

Thursday may begin with some light rain, although the weather should gradually stabilise and the chance of precipitation will decrease during the second half of the day.

Cooler conditions in Ronda

The drop in temperature will be more noticeable inland.

Ronda is forecast to record temperatures of between 10C and 19C on Wednesday, with the probability of rain reaching 95% during the afternoon.

Thursday’s maximum may remain close to 18C. During the early hours of Friday, the minimum could fall to approximately 8C.

An episode of extreme cold is not expected, but the difference between inland areas and the coast will be significant.

Weather improves from Friday

The unstable conditions will begin to clear during Thursday, although some light rain may remain possible during the morning.

A more noticeable improvement is forecast for Friday:

• A significant reduction in the probability of rain.
• Clear or partly cloudy skies.
• Maximum temperatures of between 21C and 24C along much of the coast.
• Cooler overnight conditions in inland areas.

Saturday and Sunday should remain mild, with daytime highs close to 24C in Malaga city and on the Costa del Sol.

The rain will therefore interrupt the recent stable weather, but it does not appear likely to introduce a prolonged cold spell.

When will colder weather reach Malaga?

Current forecasts do not indicate a sustained drop in temperatures along the Malaga coastline.

Overnight lows will generally remain between 13C and 16C on the coast, while daytime temperatures should quickly return above 20C after the rain passes.

Conditions will be colder in Ronda, Antequera and other elevated inland locations, where overnight temperatures may fall into single figures.

Longer-range forecasts also suggest that the first half of November could be warmer than average across southern mainland Spain, although short periods of unsettled weather remain possible.

Malaga city forecast

• Wednesday 4: afternoon and evening rain; 15C to 22C.
• Thursday 5: cloudy intervals and some light rain; 13C to 23C.
• Friday 6: mostly clear skies; 13C to 24C.
• Saturday 7: stable and mostly clear; 14C to 24C.
• Sunday 8: partly cloudy; 16C to 24C.

Advice during wet weather

Even without significant weather warnings, some basic precautions are advisable:

• Carry an umbrella or waterproof jacket.
• Increase the distance between vehicles when driving.
• Never attempt to cross flooded roads or flowing water.
• Take care on wet pavements and slippery surfaces.
• Check the forecast before outdoor activities.
• Review the latest conditions before travelling by road.

Weather forecasts can change quickly, particularly when showers and thunderstorms are irregularly distributed.