This is the breakdown of the 1.3 billion losses in the Costa del Sol due to the high-speed disconnection.

The bill of 1.3 billion euros in losses on the Costa del Sol, calculated by tourism entrepreneurs due to the railway crisis, has become the target of controversy among those who are desperately trying to minimize the impact of Málaga being without high-speed rail service since last January. The figure is neither random nor a whim of the tourism sector employers who represent the main industry of the Málaga province, the engine that directly employs 150,000 families and generates between 15 and 20% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Therefore, it is worth explaining the breakdown of this figure provided by the tourism sectors of the province based on calculations made with big data tools and tourism intelligence from Turismo Costa del Sol, which these professionals have access to, and following the pattern used to prepare annual and market balances.

In these calculations, like in the economic impact of the train crisis, not only the direct business generated by tourism companies from hotels, apartments, campgrounds, rural houses, travel agencies, car rentals, golf companies, or congress tourism, among others, is considered, but also the indirect impact, which quantifies the activity of suppliers, from those who have lost income from supplying cleaning products, meats, fish, oils, coffees, or drinks, as examples of the range of supplies moved by tourism, and the induced impact, which quantifies the effect of consumption generated by salaries derived from direct and indirect impacts.

The first point to clarify is that the figure of 1.3 billion in losses in tourism and in the entire economy of Málaga is not limited to the ten days of Holy Week, as some sectors want to interpret, but to the quarter that the Costa del Sol has been without a high-speed rail line, specifically since January 18, the date of the greatest high-speed disaster in Spain with 46 fatalities to date. Moreover, this period coincides with the first influx of tourists of the year, which represents one of the three key economic injections for this sector, along with summer and the Christmas campaign. Indeed, Holy Week marks the start of the high season for tourism on the Costa del Sol.

Next, we must start from the data of the economic impact generated by tourism in the Málaga province last year, which amounted to 22 billion euros. Considering that the high-speed rail stoppage has been ongoing since January and affects the entire first quarter of the year, calculations indicate that this period accounts for 21% of those 22 billion euros total generated by tourism, that is, 4.4 billion euros. Given an average demand drop of 20% estimated by entrepreneurs, the direct losses for tourism companies in this period amount to around 900 million euros, to which must be added the indirect impact that suppliers of the sector are bearing and the induced impact. This results in the 1.3 billion that the tourism sector has estimated as losses in the economy of Málaga due to the management carried out by the Government following the collapse of the Álora slope and assuming that this railway connection would be operational by the last unmet deadline, and there have been three, of March 23.

Precisely, the meeting of all the presidents of the different tourism employers' associations, where the now controversial figure was provided, ended minutes before the president of Adif, Pedro Marco de la Peña, announced at the foot of the collapsed slope that Málaga will not have high-speed train service until, at least, next May. That is, contrary to those who question the 1.3 billion by comparing the losses of a quarter with the balance of the Ministry on the income generated last Holy Week, tourism entrepreneurs warn that this figure is just the starting point of a disaster that impacts the economic lifeline of the Málaga economy and will have its ripple effect in the Andalusian economy, considering that tourism is the economic engine of the community and the Costa del Sol is the crown jewel of this industry, concentrating almost 40% of the region's tourism business. The bill for this high-speed crisis is currently incalculable, emphasize key sectors such as hospitality and hotels, according to statements from the presidents of these employers' associations, Javier Frutos and José Luque, respectively, who are more than concerned that high-speed rail will not reach Málaga until the eve of summer. Not to forget that this railway disconnection not only affects tourism but also thousands of workers, students, and frequent users of a strategic infrastructure for the province.